Seeds of Opportunity: The African Growth Series

In this month's issue, you will learn more about:

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: Unlocking West Africa’s Gas Corridors​​

West Africa holds some of the continent’s largest natural gas reserves, and the African Finance Corporation’s (AFC) prioritisation of gas highlights a major lever for industrialisation, regional integration, and energy security. But the opportunity is not just in extraction; it lies in building, maintaining, and modernising the infrastructure that can deliver gas efficiently across borders.​

The West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP), which transports gas from Nigeria to Benin, Togo, and Ghana, stands as a demonstration of how shared infrastructure can underpin regional energy cooperation. Similarly, the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline (ELP) illustrates both the importance and vulnerability of this backbone. When disrupted, it directly impacts power generation, industrial activity, and regional trade flows. These systems prove that integrated corridors are not hypothetical but active platforms with room for expansion, upgrading, and technological reinforcement.​

Looking forward, AI and digital monitoring tools can strengthen such networks by predicting maintenance needs, optimising flows, and enhancing pipeline integrity. Combined with new investment flows into capacity expansion, these advancements can reduce downtime, unlock industrial gas use, and make power generation more reliable and affordable across the region.​

The opportunity is clear: West Africa’s gas corridors can evolve from fragile lifelines into resilient enablers of economic growth, creating a backbone for industry, trade, and regional stability. Could West Africa’s gas boom, supported by institutions like AFC, become the foundation for industrial growth and energy resilience?​

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: Senegal’s Mamelles Plant Showcases Japan-Africa Partnerships​

Japan has quietly positioned itself in Africa as a strategic partner focused on economic transformation, high-quality infrastructure, and human capital development. At this year’s Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) in Yokohama, Japan reaffirmed its commitment to sustainable, innovative solutions across the continent, emphasising technology transfer and long-term capacity building. Its approach combines public-private partnerships (PPPs) and tender-based projects in sectors including energy, transport, and telecommunications, often coordinated with multilateral institutions like the African Development Bank. ​​

One concrete example is Senegal’s Mamelles Desalination Plant in Dakar, a €200 million project slated to produce 50,000 cubic meters of potable water daily in its first phase, with the potential to expand to 100,000 cubic meters. The plant, developed by the Senegalese government in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Nippon Koei, leverages advanced reverse osmosis and chlorination technologies. This initiative will supply roughly half of Dakar’s water needs and demonstrates Japan’s focus on combining infrastructure delivery with technology-driven solutions. ​

Beyond immediate water access, the project is building local capacity and fostering knowledge transfer. By integrating Japanese engineering expertise and management practices, Senegal is strengthening its human capital in water infrastructure, while aligning with continental initiatives like the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). The plant exemplifies how targeted partnerships can deliver both tangible infrastructure and sustainable, long-term skills development. ​

As Africa navigates growing infrastructure demand, projects like Mamelles raise important questions: how can governments and private actors structure partnerships to maximise local benefits, ensure technology transfer, and build resilient systems for the future? ​

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: Kenya’s SEZs Pave the Way for Regional Value Chains​​

Kenya is doubling down on its ambition to industrialise through the strategic development of Special Economic Zones. In early 2025, the government inked a US$1 billion lease agreement for the Naivasha and Dongo Kundu SEZs. These zones are forecast to generate up to 140,000 jobs (40,000 in Mombasa’s Dongo Kundu and 100,000 in Naivasha), anchoring Kenya’s role as a regional manufacturing and agro-processing powerhouse.​

Naivasha is fast emerging as a magnet for investment. The zone has expanded from its initial 1,000 acres to 6,000 acres, with 14 investors already committed, including the auto firm Jumbo Africa Auto Auction, which is now positioning itself for regional distribution. Meanwhile, more than Sh91 billion worth of SEZ outputs have contributed to Kenya’s GDP, generating over 7,000 direct jobs in the past year alone.​

In Mombasa, the path to operationalising the 3,000-acre Dongo Kundu zone has cleared a significant hurdle. Land compensation disputes were resolved, and multi-agency coordination is now paving the way for investor entry. With infrastructure already under development (including rail, logistics zones, and utilities), Kenya is transforming these zones into integrated industrial platforms, rather than isolated enclaves.​

These developments illustrate that SEZs can go beyond incremental tools to be central to building industrial corridors that attract investment, accelerate value addition, and create interconnected ecosystems of manufacturing, logistics, and services. The real question is whether these zones can be scaled and connected to deliver across East Africa.​

Could Kenya’s SEZs catalyse a continental shift by integrating infrastructure, logistics, and local enterprise under the AfCFTA?​

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: Combating Counterfeit Lubricants in the Gas Industry​​

What if the greatest threat to Africa’s gas industry wasn’t the global energy transition, but the oil on its machines? Across the continent, counterfeit lubricants are quietly eroding productivity, damaging multi-million-dollar assets, and threatening industrial trust. But within this challenge lies one of Africa’s most underestimated opportunities: to lead in innovation, digital verification, and brand protection.​

Global and regional players are already taking bold steps. Quantum Base’s Q-ID® Optical technology embeds unique quantum signatures into lubricants, allowing instant smartphone verification. AlpVision and Dotz Tech use invisible digital markers to verify authenticity from the refinery to the engine. CPI Fluid Engineering’s Emkarate® RL line now integrates Izon® QR labels for secure traceability, while Vivo Energy enables product verification through simple USSD codes, empowering technicians and distributors across African markets.​

Meanwhile, advances in Oil Condition Monitoring and AI-driven predictive maintenance are transforming lubricants into “intelligent assets,” reducing downtime and optimising performance. For Africa, this isn’t just about fighting fakes, it’s about redefining industrial reliability, building investor confidence, and setting a global standard in secure, sustainable lubrication.​​

Could Africa become the next global benchmark for lubricant integrity and innovation?​

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: South Africa’s Bitcoin Market Poised for Growth​

​South Africa is establishing itself as one of Africa’s most active and structured markets for cryptocurrency, supported by measurable growth in participation, expanding retail integration and a clearly defined regulatory framework.​

Over the past year, Luno added more than 530,000 new users, bringing its South African customer base to over 6.3 million. Industry data indicates that approximately 83% of cryptocurrency owners are aged between 18 and 44, reflecting strong engagement among younger, technology-aware consumers. Many are using Bitcoin for investment, remittances and savings diversification.​

Retail access is broadening. Partnerships, such as MoneyBadger and Scan to Pay, now enable Bitcoin transactions at approximately 650,000 retail outlets nationwide. These developments mark continued progress in South Africa’s digital payments infrastructure.​

The country’s regulatory landscape remains one of the most advanced in the region. Oversight by the FSCA, SARB and SARS, together with a 2025 High Court ruling clarifying that cryptocurrencies are not subject to exchange control, has created a transparent and more predictable environment for growth.​

With rising adoption, responsible governance and strong institutional oversight, South Africa is well-positioned to advance its leadership in Africa’s evolving digital economy.​

Could this be the moment Africa’s next major financial leap begins?​

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: AI and Virtual Power Plants Transforming Energy​​

Artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), and distributed energy resources (DERs) are transforming Africa’s energy sector. Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are being piloted in South Africa and Zimbabwe, aggregating decentralised generation, storage, and flexible demand into controllable networks that provide real-time balancing, energy trading, and ancillary services without the need for costly new infrastructure.​

In South Africa, the Evolve VPP in Cape Town aggregates hundreds of rooftop solar panels and batteries, optimising energy dispatch. Utility-scale VPPs combine wind, solar, and battery storage to enhance grid flexibility, while the Umoyilanga VPP integrates generation from sites 900 km apart, improving reliability. Smart water heater trials in the Western Cape demonstrated significant reductions in household blackout hours.​

In Zimbabwe, NeedEnergy is developing the country’s first VPP, using an AI-driven energy exchange to aggregate solar resources and enable peer-to-peer trading, addressing load-shedding challenges.​​

Key adopters include hospitals, universities, real estate portfolios, and public institutions. VPPs reduce strain on transmission and distribution networks, defer expensive grid reinforcements, and facilitate cost-effective integration of renewables.​

Challenges remain, including regulatory gaps, cybersecurity, and nascent flexibility markets. Successfully addressing these will allow Africa to scale AI-enabled VPPs, building decentralised, resilient, and low-carbon energy systems that improve reliability, reduce costs, and advance climate goals.​

How can policy and investment frameworks evolve to accelerate the growth of AI-enabled Virtual Power Plants across Africa?​​

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: Powering Growth Through South Africa’s Transmission Expansion​

South Africa’s Independent Transmission Programme (ITP) represents a pivotal step in opening the country’s electricity transmission network to private investment. For the first time, investors and developers can participate directly in building and operating segments of the national grid, creating a scalable model for infrastructure investment across Africa.​

The ITP aligns with the Transmission Development Plan (2024–2033), which calls for 14,000–14,500 kilometres of new transmission lines and 122,600 MVA of transformer capacity over the next decade. This expansion will enable up to 53 GW of new generation capacity, much of it renewable, and strengthen grid stability to support long-term growth.​

Phase 1, formalised through a Ministerial Determination in March 2025, covers 1,164 kilometres of 400 kV transmission lines and 2,630 MVA of transformer capacity across the Northern Cape, North West, and Gauteng. The Request for Pre-Qualification (RFQ), issued in July 2025, opened the process to qualified private developers.​

To enhance project bankability, the government, together with the World Bank Group and other partners, is establishing a Credit Guarantee Vehicle (CGV) with an initial US$500 million in capital, including a first-loss contribution from the National Treasury.​

With an estimated investment requirement of R440 billion (≈ US$24 billion), the ITP represents one of Africa’s most significant infrastructure opportunities. It offers a stable, long-term pipeline for investors and organisations committed to advancing sustainable growth and reliable energy access across the continent.​

How can partnerships between public institutions and private investors accelerate Africa’s energy transition?​

AFRICA OPPORTUNITY: From Energy Gap to Investable Growth​

Energy deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to constrain economic growth, business productivity, and social development, imposing annual costs of up to 4% of regional GDP. What was once perceived as a high-risk challenge is now recognised as a compelling investment frontier. A new generation of energy solutions is scaling, converting infrastructure gaps into measurable commercial value and social impact. ​​

Decentralised solar solutions are leading this transformation. In Nigeria, Arnergy has deployed over 1,800 solar systems across 35 states, totalling 9 MWp of installed solar capacity and 23 MWh of battery storage. Rensource delivers solar and hybrid energy solutions to commercial enterprises, enabling reliable, cost-effective power while reducing reliance on diesel. These initiatives exemplify the shift from isolated pilots to bankable infrastructure assets. ​

Innovative delivery and financing models are equally critical. In Kenya, M-KOPA employs a Pay-As-You-Go approach to provide solar home systems, e-bikes, and smartphones, reaching over 7 million customers and deploying more than US$2 billion in credit. This model expands access to critical energy and technology services for underserved households while generating returns that are attractive to institutional investors. Sun Culture empowers over 45,000 smallholder farmers with solar-powered irrigation, enhancing agricultural productivity, household incomes, and food security.​

In South Africa, Sun Exchange partners with corporate and institutional funders to finance community solar projects, extending energy access to schools, small businesses, and other local institutions. Collectively, these initiatives demonstrate how the integration of financial innovation and clean energy technologies can unlock scalable investment opportunities across the continent. ​

Sub-Saharan Africa’s energy gap is no longer simply a challenge; it is a strategic opportunity for economic growth, innovation, and measurable social impact. These startups demonstrate that solutions tailored for African markets can be both profitable and transformative, establishing a blueprint for sustainable and investable energy access. Realising this opportunity will require strategic alignment between patient capital, innovative delivery models, and localised operational expertise.​

Which startups do you believe will lead the charge in shaping Africa’s energy future?​

Frost & Sullivan Africa is an Official Sponsor of the 2025 SAVCA Industry Awards

Frost & Sullivan Africa is proud to announce its sponsorship of the Southern African Venture Capital & Private Equity Association (SAVCA) Industry Awards 2025, taking place on today 7 November 2025 at the JSE Building in Sandton.

The SAVCA Industry Awards recognise and celebrate excellence, innovation, and the positive impact of private equity and venture capital in Southern Africa. The event brings together leading investors, fund managers, and industry stakeholders to honour those driving sustainable growth and transformation across the region.

As a long-standing partner to the investment community, Frost & Sullivan Africa is committed to supporting initiatives that foster innovation, collaboration, and economic development. Sponsoring the SAVCA Industry Awards underscores this commitment and aligns with our mission to accelerate growth and create lasting value for our clients and partners.

We invite all industry participants to join us in celebrating the outstanding achievements of the private equity and venture capital ecosystem.

📅 Event Details:

Date: 7 November 2025

Venue: JSE Building, Sandton

Event: SAVCA Industry Awards 2025

We look forward to connecting with our peers and celebrating excellence within the industry.

UPCOMING EVENT: Africa's Green Economy Summit 2026 | Cape Town

Hendrik Malan (Managing Partner & Africa CEO) will once again serve as an Advisory Board Member for the upcoming Africa's Green Economy Summit in Cape Town from 24 - 27 February.

Having been part of this journey before, I have seen firsthand how powerful this platform is for driving meaningful dialogue, shaping policy, and accelerating investment into Africa’s green economy. It’s an honour to continue contributing to a summit that is not only shaping the continent’s sustainable future but also placing Africa at the heart of the global green transition.

The 2026 edition promises to be even more impactful—deepening the conversation around climate finance, green infrastructure, renewable energy, and the just transition.

Let’s keep building momentum. 🌱

To get involved - https://lnkd.in/en8mbP2H

UPCOMING EVENT: Infrastructure Africa 2026 | Cape Town

The Infrastructure Africa Business Forum is set to highlight the continent’s dynamic growth and innovation.

Here’s what to expect:

👉 Explore Strategic Projects across energy, transport, ICT, and water sectors

👉 Showcase Bankable Investment Opportunities across Africa

👉 Foster Regional and Global Partnerships to drive forward infrastructure financing

👉 Highlight Sustainable Solutions that are shaping Africa’s future

Join us at Infrastructure Africa 2026 on 2-3 March, hosted at the CTICC in Cape Town, where this transformative journey comes to life.

Click here to register now: https://lnkd.in/d8fgK6Ef

UPCOMING EVENT: Africa Energy Indaba 2026 | Cape Town

🔌 Have you secured your seat at Africa’s premier energy event?

Join industry leaders, innovators, and policymakers at the Africa Energy Indaba, taking place 3–5 March 2026 at the CTICC in Cape Town.

This is your opportunity to be part of the conversation shaping Africa’s energy future — from renewables to innovation, investment, and infrastructure.

🌍 Don’t miss out on insightful discussions, high-impact networking, and real opportunities.

🎟️ Register now: www.africaenergyindaba.com

To find out more about opportunities in Africa, please get in touch with Lynne Martin.

Lynne Martin

Sales Contact, Frost & Sullivan Africa

• lynne.martin@frost.com
• +27 21 680 3260